Where’s the snow? That’s what many residents of the Northeast United States are asking as winter continues on with a lack of snow in many areas.
Snow can be a blessing and a curse. While many people want a white Christmas, snow can be heavily disruptive.
Average snowfall is calculated to represent what anyone in the state can expect to experience over the course of winter, but that isn’t exactly accurate, especially when discussing any state that has either large or distinct regions.
For example, Arizona is a very large state with extreme variance in climate, ecosystems, and elevation from one end to another. As you will see with many large states, some areas get much more snow than others.
Median vs. The average snowfall is measured by taking the averages of each region, adding them together, and dividing the sum by how many region averages were initially used.
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In general, this is a perfectly effective strategy for predicting snowfall in a state.
To counter possible inaccuracies and false expectations, we included a table that holds the average and median of both the days per year it snows, but also the inches.
For context, the median is found when you take all the figures, line them up from least to greatest, and select the one that is perfectly in the middle. If you have an even number of figures, you will find the average of the two in question.
Medians are helpful because they give a better representation of the figures that occur the most, where averages can be swayed by less large values.
Since we are talking about states with snow, it makes sense that some states, specifically southern ones, will have either no data or strange data to relate. With that in mind, we have excluded two states from the region calculation because there was almost no data to report.
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Due to its location, climate, and shape, the state of Florida sees an average of almost no snow or 0.01 inches. In Hawaii, it’s a similar situation.
On the other hand, we have states that have aggressive variations in how much snow can fall from one end to another.
The biggest similarity between all of the above states is that from one end to another there is a dramatic geological change.
Most states have impressive changes from east to west, north to south, or some other combination. Rarely, if ever, do states have all three.
Recent Snowfall Trends in the Northeast
New York City recently set an all-time record for the latest measurable snowfall. 0.4 inch of snow fell at Central Park on February 1, 2023. The prior record was 50 years old, set on January 29, 1973. No additional snowfall has been recorded as of 2 weeks later.
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This means 0.4 inch is the current seasonal snowfall total for New York City.
The record for the least snowfall in a season for that location is 2.8 inches, set during the winter of 1972-1973. It’s possible that record may be broken this winter, with no snowstorms on the horizon. During that same winter, Philadelphia, PA recorded no measurable snowfall at all!
Other areas of the Northeast are seeing similar conditions, although not to quite the same snowless extreme as New York City. Boston, MA has only recorded 7.9 inches of snow so far this winter.
This is their 10th least snowy winter on record so far. Rochester, NY has received 21.2 inches of snow so far, which is 42.6 inches below normal.
Buffalo, NY is one of the only major cities in the Northeast that has received above average snowfall this winter, thanks to some impressive lake effect snowstorms.
East to west or north to south, there is a mountain range that one-half of the state includes or a great enough change in elevation to precede snow.
For example, in Maryland, the coast only has 10 inches of snowfall, whereas the western half sees 7x that.
In the state of New York, you have the southern coastal region where New York City is located, but as you move either north or west, you see a dramatic increase in snowfall.
For example, down on the coast, there is an average of fewer than 30 inches throughout winter. While in the regions immediately north and west of that, you see double or triple the snowfall.
Lake effect snows sweep off Lake Ontario every fall, winter and spring.
Syracuse, the snowiest city* in the US, averages over 120 inches a year.
This Northeast snowfall map - compiled by the NWS BTV meteorologist Mike Muccilli and NOAA - shows the Tug Hill Plateau as the bullseye for snow in upstate New York.
Regional Snowfall Variations
Like Illinois, Indiana borders the Great Lakes, which means that its residents often deal with “the lake effect,” explained above. The northern half sees almost triple the snowfall compared to the southern half.
In congruence with its southern neighbor, Virginia, Maryland is a long state that spans from the Atlantic Ocean up to the Appalachian Mountains.
Cape Cod is a coastal peninsula that stretches out into the Atlantic Ocean.
In a southeast region of this strangely shaped state called “The Thumb,” Michigan residents can face 42.3 inches over the course of winter.
Like most other states in this region, the bottom of its shape experiences little to no snow, while the northern half sees almost 30 inches.
Sitting right in the high desert, we have New Mexico which entirely sits above 2,000 feet and stretches up to over 13,000 feet.
The northern half sees an average of almost 40 inches of snowfall.
While North Carolina is not known for harsh or long winters, there are differences from one half of the state to the other.
In the mountains of the state, up in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park, you can see over 10 inches on average throughout the winter.
As with all states bordering the Great Lakes, Ohio has a drastic change in snowfall from north to south.
Just like its northern neighbor, Maryland, Virginia has one end in the ocean and the other in the mountains.
Just like its southern neighbor, Oregon, Washington has a great deal of variation in snowfall throughout the state. It also holds some of the Cascade Mountains.
Residents rarely see more than 5 inches on the coast and islands in one season.
Due to the incredibly mountainous nature of West Virginia, you will see a snowfall double from roughly 17 inches in the northwest region to more than 30 inches in the south.
As with each state bordering the Great Lakes, Wisconsin also encounters the “lake effect,” which is part of what gives the Midwest its reputation for tough winters.
On the eastern and southwest ends, they will have an average of roughly 45 inches per season. But on any section bordering a lake, they have much, much more.
Due to the size, location, and elevation of Wyoming, it’s no wonder they have tough, snowy winters. But one side gets much more than the others.
The entire state sits at average snowfall of 38-59 inches snowfall, except for one region. The northwest corner of Wyoming’s rectangle can see over 150 inches of snow on the ground per season.
Factors Influencing Snowfall
Snow forms when the atmospheric temperature is at or below freezing (0ºC or 32ºF), and there s also moisture in the air.
Most storms are born from a phenomenon called “frontal lifting,” where a warm and cold airmass collide, causing two different events, 1) due to the lesser density of the warm air, it’s pushed up and over the mass of cool air and 2) essentially freeze-drying the moisture in the warm air, creating snow.
Another way snow falls is through the collection of tiny ice crystals that eventually stick together, becoming heavy enough to fall to the ground.
A lot of heavy snowfalls occur around the Great Lakes region due to something called the lake effect.
Because moisture is an essential element needed to form clouds and snow, very cold air blows across a large, warmer body of water, causing a large snowstorm.
Every winter, the prevailing westerly winds push cold Canadian air over the relatively warm Great Lakes, picking up moisture and dropping it as snow.