In the world of hockey, traditional statistics like goals, assists, and save percentage have long been the standard for evaluating player and team performance. However, in recent years, a new wave of metrics known as "advanced stats" has emerged, offering deeper insights into the game.
These advanced stats attempt to quantify aspects of the game that traditional stats often miss, such as puck possession, shot quality, and overall impact on team performance. Let's explore some of the most commonly used advanced stats in hockey analytics.
Corsi
Corsi is one of the most well-known advanced stats in hockey. It measures shot attempts, both for and against a player or team, while they are on the ice. Corsi includes all shot attempts: shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots.
The formula for Corsi For Percentage (CF%) is:
CF% = (Corsi For) / (Corsi For + Corsi Against)
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A CF% above 50% suggests that the player or team is generally controlling puck possession when they are on the ice.
Fenwick
Fenwick is similar to Corsi, but it excludes blocked shots. It only counts shots on goal and missed shots. The rationale behind Fenwick is that blocked shots are often a matter of strategy and positioning, rather than pure puck possession.
The formula for Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) is:
FF% = (Fenwick For) / (Fenwick For + Fenwick Against)
Like Corsi, a FF% above 50% indicates that the player or team is generating more unblocked shot attempts than their opponents.
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PDO
PDO is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage while a player is on the ice. It is often used as a measure of luck or randomness in hockey. The average PDO is typically around 100%.
PDO = Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage
A PDO significantly above 100% may suggest that a player or team is experiencing unsustainable levels of success, while a PDO significantly below 100% may indicate that they are due for positive regression.
CORSI & FENWICK EXPLAINED | Understanding Hockey Analytics | Wildly Informed
Other Advanced Stats
Besides Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO, there are other advanced stats that provide valuable insights:
- xG (Expected Goals): Measures the quality of scoring chances and estimates the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal.
- GAR (Goals Above Replacement): Estimates the total number of goals a player contributes above a replacement-level player.
- WAR (Wins Above Replacement): Estimates the number of wins a player contributes above a replacement-level player.
Using Advanced Stats
Advanced stats are used by hockey analysts, coaches, and general managers to evaluate player performance, make informed decisions about player acquisitions, and develop game strategies. They provide a more comprehensive understanding of the game than traditional stats alone.
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For example, a player with high Corsi and Fenwick numbers may be driving puck possession and creating scoring chances, even if their goal and assist totals are not as high. This can help identify undervalued players who are making a significant impact on their team's success.
Here's a table summarizing the advanced stats discussed:
| Stat | Description | Formula | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corsi (CF%) | Shot attempts for vs. shot attempts against | (Corsi For) / (Corsi For + Corsi Against) | >50% indicates good puck possession |
| Fenwick (FF%) | Unblocked shot attempts for vs. unblocked shot attempts against | (Fenwick For) / (Fenwick For + Fenwick Against) | >50% indicates good unblocked shot generation |
| PDO | Sum of shooting percentage and save percentage | Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage | Around 100% is average; deviations indicate luck |
| xG | Expected Goals | Complex model based on shot location, type, etc. | Higher xG indicates better scoring chances |